I think it's safe to say 2016 was bad for the economy and the market.
It will be worse this year. It could extend to 2018 or even 2019.
1MDB is the clear sign of the government losing it's way. Felda is in trouble. The ringgit is not seeing it's bottom yet.
Today, The Malay Mail reported that it's
factory output now down 21 months running. This is remarkable because Malaysia has long passed it's import substitution of industrial development and it has not in a coordinated way developed it's climb up the value chain particularly in the technological development.
The difference is glaring when comparing the automotive manufacturing between Thailand and Malaysia. Thailand has invited foreign motor industries to set up plants there while Malaysia went the Proton way.
The mistake in the last 50 years of managing the economy based solely on uplifting the Malay pride, I think, is coming home to roost.
Property overhang stood at "11,316 [units at the end of 2015] and these were worth RM5.9 billion, up by 16.3% in volume and 56% in value from those in 2014.
Note: [The government has defined overhang units as properties that are completed and issued with Certificates of Fitness for Occupation (CFO) or Temporary Certificates of Fitness for Occupation (TCFO), but remain unsold despite having been put on the market for at least nine months.]
These are already sitting there for more than 9 months and I am assuming that majority of them are Bumi lots reserved for the Melayu, and
half of overhang units are homes priced at RM300,000 and below. See the problem?
"According to the National Property Information Centre (Napic), 18,908 of the 81,894 units of residential and commercial properties launched in the first quarter of 2016 have yet to be sold.
These unsold properties amount to RM9.4 billion and it is an increase of 15.9 per cent from the value of unsold units in the fourth quarter of last year." as reported by
The Malay Mail.
"Napic also said the number of unsold units under construction recorded an increase of 28.6% to 68,760 units due to large numbers of unsold condominium and service apartment units." says
another report.
Another report commented with respect to rental rates:
"Low demand and oversupply of high-rise residential units may see rental rates drop by as much as 30 per cent over the next two years."
It is now a common knowledge that banks are tightening their wallet and apply strict lending policy. The word on the street is that as much as 60% of the housing loan applications are rejected.
I am looking to buy a small unit as weekend home in Subang area. Either condo or soho. So whenever my wife and I are in KL, we can stay there. Other times it can be rented out as AirBNB short term rental. In a way, the rental yield has to make sense. Otherwise, I might as well put my money in REIT that yields 7% - 9%.
For the yield to maintain, say at 4%, given the existing rental, then the price of the property has to come down.
So, let's take the unit that I'm interested in, Subang Soho or One Soho.
This is located in SS19 Subang and very near Empire Shopping Gallery and Subang Parade. It has good access to Federal Highway where it can take me to Batu Tiga toll and onward back to Seremban.
And it's close to my brother's house.
It has small enough units to chose from (because I don't need such a big place) and the total purchase price will be below RM400,000. I will be buying it in cash so I'm not affected by bank's lending restriction.
Property Details
Name: Subang SoHo (also known as One SoHo)
Address: Jalan SS19/1, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor
Developer: Sendi Bangga Development (a subsidiary of Titijaya Group)
Completion Date: Oct 2012
Type: SOHO
Tenure: {Tenure}
No. of Blocks: 2
No. of Storey: 16
No. of Units: 448
Built-up: 685 - 1,289 sf
Maintenance Fee: RM0.35 psf
Launch Price
685 sf: From RM237,000 - RM310,000
Corner: From RM350,000
Subsale Price: RM450,000 - RM900,000
Rental: RM3 psf onwards
I'm looking at the smallest unit of 685sf. At launching it was priced at RM346 psf. Current rental in the market is between RM1,400 to RM1,800. I will take RM1,500 as reference rental.
If you have bought the unit during the launch, your current rental yield is 6.38% (RM18,000 - RM2,877 for maintenance fee / RM18,000). I will ignore the other incidental expenses.
This is excellent yield. Even if you drop the rental to RM1,200/month, your yield at this price is still 4.86%.
So what is my target entry price assuming I want a yield of 4%, even though I don't intend to rent it out? It make sense to find a reference purchase price to make sure I get a good value for my money.
A quick calculation showed that my purchase price should be between RM288,000 and RM378,000. The low end is based on perceived rental rate of RM1,200/month less maintenance fee, the top end is based on rental of RM1,500.
So, if the unit drops to RM378,000 then I can safely pull the trigger.
Will it happened in the next 3 years? I think it will.
If you look at the subsale price indicated by
Propwall, it's RM450,000. But the price has dropped by 9.3% at current market of RM408,000 advertised in Mudah.com. If I do it now, I think I can negotiate down to RM398,000.
So that is not too far from my trigger price of RM378,000. Another RM20,000 and we are there.
If I can get one at RM320,000 to RM350,000 I will be very happy. I'm not into flipping and I planned to hold it for long term so this will turn out to be a good investment.
The only downside is the property is classified as commercial due to it's Soho status, therefore my electricity and water will be charged at commercial rate. I wonder if Unifi will charge me commercial rate as well (I think they will).
Anyway, if you're in similar situation as I'm, you should start monitoring properties for sale.
Happy hunting.